NOAA Predicts Active 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

NOAA’s National Weather Service forecasters from the Climate Prediction Center are predicting an active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, with a significantly higher chance of above-normal activity. The season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, has an 85% likelihood of more storms than usual, with only a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of below-normal activity. Forecasters expect between 17 to 25 named storms, with 8 to 13 potentially becoming hurricanes, including 4 to 7 major hurricanes of category 3 or higher.
Several factors are contributing to this elevated forecast, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, the onset of La Niña conditions, reduced trade winds, and diminished wind shear. These conditions are conducive to increased tropical storm formation.
NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad emphasized the agency’s commitment to providing life-saving information, mentioning advancements such as AI-enabled language translations and a new depiction of inland wind threats. FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks highlighted the importance of preparation in light of severe weather risks and the proactive measures needed to face the challenging climate landscape.
The transition from one of the strongest El Niños on record to La Niña is expected to favor Atlantic hurricane activity by reducing wind shear, which can hinder storm development. Additionally, the warm ocean temperatures and potential for an above-normal west African monsoon could further contribute to an active hurricane season.
NOAA’s statement also addressed the impact of human-caused climate change, noting the warming of the oceans and melting ice leading to sea level rise, thereby increasing the risk of storm surge and enhancing the damage potential from hurricanes.