NOAA Predicts Above-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season for 2024

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued its hurricane season outlook for 2024, forecasting an above-normal level of hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin due to factors such as La Nina conditions and warmer-than-average ocean temperatures. NOAA anticipates a range of 17 to 25 named storms, with 8 to 13 potentially becoming hurricanes, including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). This prediction is backed by a 70% confidence level and is influenced by a combination of near-record warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures, the development of La Nina, reduced Atlantic trade winds, and less wind shear.
NOAA emphasizes the importance of preparation for residents and businesses, highlighting that even a single storm can significantly impact the season. Enhanced communication and new forecast tools are set to improve the agency’s ability to inform and protect the public. These advancements include expanded Spanish language text products, an experimental forecast cone graphic incorporating inland watches and warnings, and the implementation of new forecast models to better predict storm intensity and rapid intensification.
Additionally, system upgrades will enhance NOAA’s observational capabilities, with projects aimed at collecting more data from the ocean and atmosphere in key regions. These efforts are part of NOAA’s commitment to saving lives and protecting property by providing critical information before, during, and after hurricane events. The outlook serves as a reminder of the potential for significant storm activity and the need for preparedness among communities in hurricane-prone areas.