Forecast for 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center forecasts an above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, with an 85% chance of above-normal activity. The season, spanning June 1 to November 30, is expected to see 17 to 25 named storms, 8 to 13 hurricanes, and 4 to 7 major hurricanes. Factors contributing to this active season include near-record warm ocean temperatures, the development of La Niña conditions, reduced Atlantic trade winds, and less wind shear, all of which favor storm formation.
In response, NOAA is enhancing its forecast communications and tools, including expanded Spanish language advisories, an experimental forecast cone graphic depicting inland threats, and the ability to issue intermediate advisories for updates. New forecast models like MOM6 and SDCON will improve hurricane intensity predictions, and the new generation of Flood Inundation Mapping will aid emergency managers in flood preparation.
System upgrades include deploying underwater gliders and the new Streamsonde dropsonde for real-time wind data collection, and the CHAOS research experiment to enhance understanding of air-sea interactions. These efforts aim to improve hurricane analysis, forecasting, and public safety.