NOAA Predicts Above-Average Hurricane Season for 2024 due to High Ocean Heat and La Niña Transition

**Above Average Hurricane Season Anticipated in the North Atlantic Due to High Ocean Heat and La Niña**
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts an above-normal hurricane season in the North Atlantic this year, attributing it to high ocean heat content and the expected formation of La Niña. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center anticipates 17 to 25 named storms, with 8 to 13 possibly escalating to hurricanes, including 4 to 7 major ones. This exceeds the average yearly figures and marks the continuation of an eight-year trend of heightened activity since 2015.
The Atlantic hurricane season, spanning June 1 to November 30, has historically been a period of significant weather activity, monitored closely by the World Meteorological Organization Tropical Cyclone Programme. WMO Secretary-General Ko Barrett highlighted the disproportionate impact of hurricanes on Small Island Developing States, stressing the importance of early warnings and disaster risk management to mitigate socio-economic setbacks.
Efforts are underway, as part of the WMO’s “Early Warnings For All” initiative, to enhance early warning systems, especially in vulnerable small islands. The upcoming International Conference on Small Island Developing States will further address these concerns.
Factors contributing to this year’s forecast include near-record ocean temperatures and the shift to La Niña, both of which favor storm formation. Additionally, a stronger west African monsoon and lighter trade winds could further intensify the hurricane season. The WMO and the US National Hurricane Center are leading the forecasting and warning efforts, emphasizing improvements in communication and the provision of comprehensive hazard assessments.
Historically, tropical cyclones have been a significant source of human and economic losses worldwide, though advancements in warning systems and disaster preparedness have notably reduced fatalities in recent decades. The NOAA and WMO continue to work on enhancing forecasting techniques and public awareness to mitigate the impacts of what is expected to be an unusually active hurricane season.